In my last post, I took a close look at Rassmussen's favorability ratings for the three (and only three) potential Democratic 2008 contenders whose favorability is statistically higher than their unfavorability: Clark, Edwards, and Obama. Since that time, Rassmussen has new data on Edwards and Obama (but alas, not on General Clark).
The new polling data are dated January 4, 2007, and were most likely collected since New Years.
Briefly, Obama's numbers changed only one point in each direction -- both to his benefit, but with no effect on my prior analysis and, statistically speaking, not significant at all. And for what it's worth (since I didn't report on her before), they must have also done another poll on Hillary Clinton, as she gained a point in the unfavorable column -- likewise an insignificant change.
But Edwards is another story. His new numbers are 54% favorable, 37% unfavorable. That's a bump of 7 points in the good column, a loss of 4 points in the bad, and (obviously) an increase of 11 points in the difference between them.
Before I update my analysis of a few days ago, allow me to point out that the new data date from after Edwards' formal announcement in New Orleans that he will be running for the Democratic nomination in 2008... was there ever any doubt? Now, it would be sour grapes to claim the data only reflect what a boatload of free and positive media gets you, especially this early in the cycle when opinions are still relatively unformed. But it would also be true.
Regardless of the reason, Edwards' bump nudges him ahead of and statistically tied with Obama in the percentage of voters who view him favorably. The ranking of most favorable is now
1. John Edwards 54% (up 7)
2. Barack Obama 52% (up 1)
3. Wes Clark 39%
Additionally, the new data show a decrease in the number of people who view Edwards unfavorably, but not enough to change the least unfavorable ranking:
1. Wes Clark 28%
2. Barack Obama 31% (down 1)
3. John Edwards.37% (down 4)
Edwards' biggest gain seems to be in how much he has expanded the spread between how many view him favorably and how many unfavorable. It moves him well above Clark and right to the edge of the margin of error edge behind Obama for what I have labeled "best liked":
1. Barack Obama 21 pts (up 2)
2. John Edwards 17 pts (up 11)
3. Wes Clark 11 pts
Direct extrapolation of the new data also gives Edwards a boost to statistically tie but not pass Obama, who also gains a point in the most favorable extrapolated ranking:
1. Barak Obama 61% (up 1)
2. John Edwards 59% (up 7)
3. Wes Clark 52%
Finally, we get to the measurement of how much room a candidate has to grow his or her favorability numbers, and the data here are instructive, so I'll ramble on a little more for this catagory.
Obama, who went up one to the good, and down one to the bad, didn't change a single point in this area. If the changes in his numbers had been outside the margin of error, we could have ascertained that he was convincing people to like him who didn't before, instead of merely gaining name recognition. Unfortunately for Obama, the changes were not large enough to mean anything.
Conversely, the change in Edwards' numbers is well outside the margin, and also cuts significantly into the percentage of people who had no opinion in earlier polling. This shows that at least some of his gain, roughly half of it (plus or minus that darned margin of error), must reflect people who had no opinion before, and likely even more than the numbers show, given how respondents tend to like to hide their ignorance and/or indecisiveness. So what Edwards has achieved by his announcement, overshadowed as it was by Saddam's execution and President Ford's funeral, was a relatively sharp increase (a full quarter of his previous potential) at best in reaching new people and leaving them with a positive first impression, or at worst in simple name recognition. Probably some of both, but gosh, is it any wonder Edwards likes to announce more than once? Heh...
To his disadvantage, Edwards now enjoys even less growth potential than before.
1. Wes Clark 33%
2. Barack Obama 17% (no change)
3. John Edwards.9% (down 3)
It's a worthwhile trade-off, if maybe a little early to be pushing that door closed. For if these numbers were static, which of course they are not -- far from it, to be sure, but to illustrate the point -- the highest potential to which these three men could aspire (that is, current favorability plus growth potential) would be:
1. Wes Clark 72%
2. Barack Obama 69%
3. John Edwards 63%
And that, ladies and gentlemen, means we have the potential for a helluva horse race. I can't wait for our thoroughbred to leave the gate.
